US think tanks say Beijing is widening pressure to relatives of Taiwan politicians: Taiwan Affairs Office sanctioned Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen's father's firm in October, aiming to sway next month's local elections

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The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in their joint 'China & Taiwan Update' of October 20, 2026, say China is increasingly extending pressure from politicians it designates 'diehard separatists' to their relatives — taking Taipei mayoral candidate and DPP legislator Puma Shen as the case in point: Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office put Shen on its sanctions list in October 2024 and, on October 14, 2026, sanctioned VWAY Co., a company registered to his father Shen Tu-cheng, barring it from doing business with Chinese organisations, enterprises and individuals. The report assesses that Beijing may intend to affect Shen's Taipei mayoral campaign. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council condemned the move on October 17 as an attempt to intimidate Taiwanese society and interfere in the election; Shen himself dismissed the allegations as old claims recycled since 2024, saying his family's business dealings were with Ecuador, not mainland China. [1][2][3]

Why it matters

This report is worth recording for four reasons. First, the shift from sanctioning the politician to sanctioning a relative's business is an escalation in cross-strait coercion: it needs no judicial process, yet it strikes directly at a candidate's family finances and social network. Second, the timing sits close to the election: the VWAY sanctions were announced on October 14, about a month before November's local elections, and the report explicitly assesses an electoral intent — and warns that even unsuccessful intimidation can deter public figures from associating with Shen, narrowing political debate. Third, the pattern is not isolated: the report also lists the nephew of Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang, fired from a Taiwan firm in China, and the brother of UMC founder Robert Tsao, barred from entering China — family pressure as a repeatable playbook. Fourth, it connects directly to this site's Taiwan-pressure beat: the Wanying Zhang case (recorded by this site on October 6, updated October 24) is surveillance of President Lai's son, and the Taiwan comedian attack-plot case (recorded October 21) is a planned physical assault, while this case is economic sanction of a relative — three different forms of pressure on Taiwan. A conservative note: the 'intent to sway the election' is the think tanks' assessment, not an admitted motive from Beijing; the sanctions, the condemnation and the denial are all on the public record, but motive can only be attributed; and retellings differ on the period over which VWAY's roughly US$700,000 in mainland trade was counted (ten months versus six months), so this record takes only the order of magnitude, not the duration. Hence 'under ongoing verification'. [1][2][3]

Full report

According to the joint 'China & Taiwan Update' of October 20, 2026, from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (data cutoff October 19), China is increasingly targeting the family members of those it deems Taiwan 'separatists' to coerce them into halting activities Beijing views as promoting 'Taiwan independence'; the report says coercion of Taiwanese politician Puma Shen is intensifying in particular, possibly to affect his Taipei mayoral campaign. Its core finding is that pressure has widened from the politicians labelled 'stubborn Taiwan independence elements' to their business-owning relatives. [1]

The Shen timeline: in October 2024, the Taiwan Affairs Office put then-legislator Shen on its 'diehard separatist' sanctions list; in June 2025 it sanctioned another company of his father Shen Tu-cheng, Sicuens (Chao Yi); and on October 14, 2026, it announced sanctions on VWAY Co., saying Shen Tu-cheng had kept trading with mainland firms through VWAY after Sicuens was sanctioned. Hong Kong's Ta Kung Pao and Wen Wei Po had first reported VWAY's mainland trade at around US$700,000 (retellings differ on the period counted — ten months versus six months — so this record does not rely on a specific duration); both papers are owned by Hong Kong's Liaison Office. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council condemned the move on October 17, describing a pattern in which Hong Kong papers float a targeting report first and official sanctions follow, aiming to intimidate Taiwanese society and sway voters, and saying Taiwan would protect its citizens and businesses and defend its democratic system. [2][3][4]

Shen's response: he dismissed the allegations as old claims recycled since 2024, said his family's business dealings were with Ecuador, and denied trading in mainland China; he added that he had already been sanctioned and placed on a wanted list, and alleged that Chinese authorities had hired people from Hong Kong to monitor him. His campaign team said such tactics would not win the trust of Taipei voters, and the DPP legislative caucus accused Beijing of interfering in Taiwan's elections, saying voters would see through the tactics. Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said Beijing had sanctioned Sicuens in June 2025 and that Shen Tu-cheng continued dealing with mainland companies through VWAY, which is why VWAY is now barred from business or cooperation with organisations in China. [3][4]

Other family cases in the report: the nephew of Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang, who worked at a Taiwan firm in China, was investigated and fired in April 2026; the brother of UMC founder Robert Tsao was barred from entering China for funding the Kuma Academy; and the military-linked social media account Jun Zhengping and the Taiwan Affairs Office criticised television host Kevin Tsai for attending a Shen campaign event. The report warns that even unsuccessful intimidation could discourage public figures from associating with Shen, restricting political debate and influencing Taiwan's electoral environment. [1][3]

Verification note and links to this site's records: the core facts — the ISW-AEI report's conclusions, the October 14 VWAY sanctions, the October 17 Mainland Affairs Council condemnation, and Shen's denial — are all on the public record; but the 'intent to sway the election' is the think tanks' assessment of motive, which the Taiwan Affairs Office has not admitted, while Shen denies the underlying business claims altogether, so motive can only be attributed, not concluded. A further note: ANI's October 24 report also mentions the October California arrest — this site's Wanying Zhang case (recorded October 6, updated October 24), in which a woman is accused of monitoring President Lai's son at China's direction — which the report treats as another form of pressure on Taiwan alongside family sanctions; this site's October 21 record of the alleged plot to stage a car accident targeting Taiwan comedian Huang Yihao belongs to the same beat. This record is graded 'under ongoing verification' and will follow further pressure and Taiwan-side responses around November's local elections. [1][2][3]

Primary sources

Links above point to the original publishers of the cited reports or assessments. Their conclusions are attributed in the text and do not imply that this site has independently verified every factual claim.