美智库报告指北京扩大施压台湾政治人物家属：国台办 10 月制裁台北市长候选人沈伯洋父亲名下公司，意在影响下月地方选举US think tanks say Beijing is widening pressure to relatives of Taiwan politicians: Taiwan Affairs Office sanctioned Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen's father's firm in October, aiming to sway next month's local elections

据美国企业研究所（AEI）与战争研究所（ISW）10 月 20 日联合发布的《中国与台湾动态》（数据截至 10 月 19 日），中国正日益针对其认定的台湾“分裂分子”的家属施压，迫使这些家属停止被北京视为推动“台独”的活动；报告特别指出，对台湾政治人物沈伯洋的施压正在加剧，可能意在影响他的台北市长竞选。报告的核心判断是：施压对象已从被贴上“顽固台独分子”标签的政治人物本人，扩大到他们经商的亲属。[1]

沈伯洋个案时间线：国台办 2024 年 10 月把时任立委沈伯洋列入“台独顽固分子”制裁名单；2025 年 6 月制裁其父沈土城名下的另一家公司兆亿（Sicuens）；2026 年 10 月 14 日，国台办宣布制裁 VWAY 公司——称沈土城在兆亿被制裁后，仍以 VWAY 与大陆企业往来。香港《大公报》《文汇报》先行报道 VWAY 录得约 70 万美元对大陆贸易额（不同转述对统计时长说法不一，有 10 个月与 6 个月两种，本记录不采信具体时长）；两报均为香港中联办旗下。台湾陆委会 10 月 17 日谴责此举，指这是先由港媒放风、再由官方制裁的模式，企图恐吓台湾社会、影响选民，并表示台湾会保护本国公民与企业、捍卫民主制度。[2][3][4]

沈伯洋的回应：他驳斥相关指控是 2024 年以来反复炒作的旧说法，称家族生意往来对象是厄瓜多尔，否认在大陆经商的说法；并称自己早已被制裁、被列入通缉名单，还指中方曾雇用香港人士监视他。其竞选团队称，此类做法不会赢得台北选民信任；民进党立法院党团也指责北京干预台湾选举，称选民看得穿这些手法。国台办发言人陈斌华则称，北京早在 2025 年 6 月制裁兆亿，沈土城仍以 VWAY 继续与大陆企业往来，因此 VWAY 如今也被禁止与中国组织、企业和个人往来。[3][4]

报告列出的其他家属案例：内政部长刘世芳的侄子在大陆一家台资企业任职，2026 年 4 月被调查并解雇；联电创始人曹兴诚的胞弟因资助黑熊学院被禁止入境中国；军方背景自媒体“钧正平”与国台办批评电视主持人蔡康永出席沈伯洋竞选活动。报告警告，即使恐吓未能得逞，也可能让公众人物不敢与沈伯洋往来，从而限制政治辩论、影响台湾的选举环境。[1][3]

核实说明与本站关联：本记录的核心事实——ISW-AEI 报告的结论、国台办 10 月 14 日制裁 VWAY、陆委会 10 月 17 日谴责、沈伯洋的否认——均有公开报道佐证；但“意在影响选举”属于智库的动机评估，国台办并未承认选举动机，沈伯洋方面则否认全部经商指控，动机一节只能归因、不能定论。另需说明：ANI 10 月 24 日的报道同时提到 10 月加州逮捕案，即本站 10 月 6 日记录、10 月 24 日更新的 Wanying Zhang 案（被控受中国指使监视赖清德之子），报告把该案与家属施压并列为对台施压的不同形态；本站 10 月 21 日记录的台湾喜剧演员袭击策划案亦属同一议题线。本记录定性为持续核实，将继续跟进 11 月地方选举前后的后续施压与台湾方面的回应。[1][2][3]

According to the joint 'China & Taiwan Update' of October 20, 2026, from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (data cutoff October 19), China is increasingly targeting the family members of those it deems Taiwan 'separatists' to coerce them into halting activities Beijing views as promoting 'Taiwan independence'; the report says coercion of Taiwanese politician Puma Shen is intensifying in particular, possibly to affect his Taipei mayoral campaign. Its core finding is that pressure has widened from the politicians labelled 'stubborn Taiwan independence elements' to their business-owning relatives. [1]

The Shen timeline: in October 2024, the Taiwan Affairs Office put then-legislator Shen on its 'diehard separatist' sanctions list; in June 2025 it sanctioned another company of his father Shen Tu-cheng, Sicuens (Chao Yi); and on October 14, 2026, it announced sanctions on VWAY Co., saying Shen Tu-cheng had kept trading with mainland firms through VWAY after Sicuens was sanctioned. Hong Kong's Ta Kung Pao and Wen Wei Po had first reported VWAY's mainland trade at around US$700,000 (retellings differ on the period counted — ten months versus six months — so this record does not rely on a specific duration); both papers are owned by Hong Kong's Liaison Office. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council condemned the move on October 17, describing a pattern in which Hong Kong papers float a targeting report first and official sanctions follow, aiming to intimidate Taiwanese society and sway voters, and saying Taiwan would protect its citizens and businesses and defend its democratic system. [2][3][4]

Shen's response: he dismissed the allegations as old claims recycled since 2024, said his family's business dealings were with Ecuador, and denied trading in mainland China; he added that he had already been sanctioned and placed on a wanted list, and alleged that Chinese authorities had hired people from Hong Kong to monitor him. His campaign team said such tactics would not win the trust of Taipei voters, and the DPP legislative caucus accused Beijing of interfering in Taiwan's elections, saying voters would see through the tactics. Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said Beijing had sanctioned Sicuens in June 2025 and that Shen Tu-cheng continued dealing with mainland companies through VWAY, which is why VWAY is now barred from business or cooperation with organisations in China. [3][4]

Other family cases in the report: the nephew of Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang, who worked at a Taiwan firm in China, was investigated and fired in April 2026; the brother of UMC founder Robert Tsao was barred from entering China for funding the Kuma Academy; and the military-linked social media account Jun Zhengping and the Taiwan Affairs Office criticised television host Kevin Tsai for attending a Shen campaign event. The report warns that even unsuccessful intimidation could discourage public figures from associating with Shen, restricting political debate and influencing Taiwan's electoral environment. [1][3]

Verification note and links to this site's records: the core facts — the ISW-AEI report's conclusions, the October 14 VWAY sanctions, the October 17 Mainland Affairs Council condemnation, and Shen's denial — are all on the public record; but the 'intent to sway the election' is the think tanks' assessment of motive, which the Taiwan Affairs Office has not admitted, while Shen denies the underlying business claims altogether, so motive can only be attributed, not concluded. A further note: ANI's October 24 report also mentions the October California arrest — this site's Wanying Zhang case (recorded October 6, updated October 24), in which a woman is accused of monitoring President Lai's son at China's direction — which the report treats as another form of pressure on Taiwan alongside family sanctions; this site's October 21 record of the alleged plot to stage a car accident targeting Taiwan comedian Huang Yihao belongs to the same beat. This record is graded 'under ongoing verification' and will follow further pressure and Taiwan-side responses around November's local elections. [1][2][3]